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In January, the evaluation research of the National Growth Fund was presented to the House of Representatives. The research, carried out by Dialogic, provides recommendations on how the National Growth Fund can be evaluated in the coming years.
The National Growth Fund is an initiative of the Dutch government aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth and innovation in the Netherlands by investing in promising projects. Over the past years, the fund has invested in 50 projects totalling 11.3 billion euros. In 2026, the first evaluation of the National Growth Fund as a whole will be conducted. This evaluation will focus on the responsible use of public funds for economic growth, assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of the fund.
The current research focuses on how the NGF will be evaluated in the upcoming years and provides recommendations for a thorough approach. The research highlights two supported projects that have received direct subsidies through the NGF Subsidy Scheme: Growing with Green Steel (aimed at making the Dutch steel industry sustainable by achieving a CO₂-neutral production process by 2050) and Charging Energy Hubs (focused on accelerating the deployment of charging infrastructure for electric logistic vehicles to alleviate the strain on the electricity grid).
Dialogic recommends an evaluation for these two subsidy projects based on a combination of 'contribution analysis' and 'process tracing' (CA/PT). These methods enable researchers not only to assess the effectiveness and efficiency but also to understand the processes and mechanisms that have contributed to them. The Theory of Change outlined in the NGF project plan forms a crucial basis for conducting the evaluation. For both projects, an inventory has been made of the data available for each part of the Theory of Change to determine the availability of necessary indicators for the evaluation. As projects will still be ongoing in 2026, the first evaluations of the fund will have the nature of interim evaluations. Additionally, recommendations have been made regarding the evaluation of the remaining (departmental) 48 projects. The combination of CA/PT is also recommended for these, advising to refine the Theory of Change in a timely manner and identify relevant and available sources of information.
The research was presented to the House of Representatives on 15 January. Want to learn more? Read the relevant Chamber letter and the full report here.
