Dialogic evaluates National Growth Fund halfway through its duration

On behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, Dialogic started an extensive interim evaluation of the National Growth Fund (NGF) in March 2026. This first evaluation, approximately five years after the start of the NGF, focuses on the effectiveness and efficiency of the fund. The research will result in a final report expected to be completed in the autumn of 2026.

Background and objective

The NGF was established in 2021 to increase the sustainable economic earning capacity of the Netherlands through investments in innovation and knowledge. Since its inception, dozens of ambitious projects have been supported in three application rounds, with a government contribution of over 11 billion euros. Both the Temporary National Growth Fund Act and European agreements require a main evaluation of the fund to be carried out after five years. The current interim evaluation fulfils this obligation. The central question is the extent to which the NGF is starting to achieve its intended effects and whether the approach being implemented is expected to work well.

Approach

The evaluation utilises a dual focus. On one hand, Dialogic conducts a meta-analysis of insights from existing interim evaluations of 18 NGF projects (out of the 48 departmental projects) being implemented through the ministries (the departmental route). This analysis aims to determine if these projects, and the NGF as a whole, are on track to achieve the set goals. On the other hand, the evaluation specifically focuses on the two projects funded directly through the NGF subsidy scheme - 'Growing with Green Steel' (aimed at CO₂-neutral steel production by 2050) and 'Charging Energy Hubs' (focused on accelerated deployment of charging infrastructure for electric logistics vehicles). For these two projects, Dialogic conducts an interim evaluation to assess whether the activities carried out so far align with the intended results and objectives. In evaluating the subsidy projects, Dialogic employs a combination of 'contribution analysis' and 'process tracing' (CA/PT). These evaluation methods enable researchers to not only make statements about the effects achieved, but also to understand the underlying processes and mechanisms that contribute to these effects. Learning for the future: The NGF represents one of the largest investment stimuli for innovation in the Netherlands. Therefore, this interim evaluation not only provides insights into the progress and initial results of the ongoing NGF projects, but also yields valuable lessons for future innovation and investment policies. The findings will assist policymakers in determining whether the NGF is on track, where any adjustments are needed, and how large programmes like this can be even more effectively structured in the future.

Project Team

The evaluation is being carried out by a large, multidisciplinary project team from Dialogic. For any questions, please contact the project leader Pim den Hertog.