What was it like to evaluate the regulation of the online gambling market?

It was a special evaluation. Evaluations often take place after a law or policy has been in effect for five years. This time, the evaluation took place after three years, with many changes occurring in between. For example, the Minister has adjusted the rules on advertising to prohibit untargeted advertising, like ads on TV or at bus stops. The industry was still evolving during the evaluation. Due to the rapid evaluation and ongoing rule changes, it was an exciting and sometimes complex evaluation.

How did you deal with these changes during the evaluation? Does it affect your approach?

Yes, it definitely makes a difference! We knew beforehand that some aspects would be hard to measure. For instance, addiction figures are known to lag behind the actual number of addicts, as people must seek help before appearing in the statistics. Therefore, we chose to examine three separate aspects.

Firstly, we outlined the policy and its expected effects. This allowed us to identify the assumptions made about the potential effects and revealed some contradictions. Next, we looked at the implementation in practice: How is the policy being implemented? This helps us identify whether the policy is being executed as expected (and hoped!) even though the effects are yet to be determined. Finally, we examined what we can already say about the effects. Together, these provide the best possible insight into how well the policy is functioning at this stage.

You also logged into gambling sites for the evaluation. What did this add to the research?

Aside from providing an interesting perspective on the player's experience, it helped us clearly map out how the policy translates into practice. The legislation sets requirements on the player's experience, where the licensed operator must provide information and intervene when necessary. Our findings from investigating the gambling interface proved to be a valuable addition to the population surveys conducted by Ipsos I&O for the WODC. Combining the players' experiences from those surveys with insights into how gambling sites operate helped us gain a better understanding of how legislation plays out in practice and its impact on players.

Why was it so important to map out this practice?

The exact effects of regulation are challenging to measure accurately. Addiction may only manifest in help-seeking behaviour after a few years, so it may take 5-8 years post-legalisation to assess if it resulted in increased addiction. Additionally, determining if there is an increase in players is complex. There were some studies on Dutch gambling behaviour pre-legalisation, but comparing them with post-legalisation data is difficult. The timing of surveys matters, and people may be more willing to discuss it now that it's legal. We, therefore, combine various methods: painting a picture as best as possible with the data, such as the number of players, and complementing it with expectations based on implementation practices.

For instance, we have data on the number of new player accounts, indicating a significant increase, including among young adults who were meant to be protected by the policy. A considerable portion of gamblers surveyed mentioned they started after the legal market opened in October 2021. This suggests an increase in players. Combining this with ineffective addiction prevention measures designed pre-legalisation leads us to suspect that the policy may lead to more gambling addiction, particularly among young adults.

Does the ongoing political debate about gambling affect your work?

The political debate doesn't affect the research. We can conduct our work independently. When engaging with stakeholders from the gambling sector, it's evident that the topic is significant. Everyone was eager to contribute to the evaluation. It's our responsibility to listen to all perspectives and interests and represent them accurately while making necessary considerations.

At times, the political debate can be engaging. Our research is often shared with the House of Representatives, but usually remains somewhat in the background. Those active in the field are aware, but the broader audience may not be. Currently, there is more media interest in the research. It's exciting, but also nerve-wracking to be in the spotlight when you're not used to it.

What did you enjoy most about the evaluation?

The best part of the evaluation was gaining insights from every angle. For many, it's a black box: you can't see what's happening inside from the outside. We had the opportunity to look from all perspectives. The Gambling Authority explained their oversight procedures and actions against illegal operators. Addiction care shared their experiences with gambling addicts and the insights they've gained. License holders told us about their efforts to detect and correct players who cross boundaries. These behind-the-scenes glimpses were delightful and collectively improved our evaluation.