Study choice in motion

The reason for this research is the currently historical large staff shortages in the Netherlands, with the greatest shortage in the sectors of education, healthcare, technology, and ICT. One of the solutions being explored is to (strongly) encourage students to pursue education in fields with a sustainable job market outlook. There is frequent demand from politics and society for more or stronger measures to guide young people and adults towards education in sectors facing shortages that contribute to urgent societal challenges such as energy transition or shortages in healthcare. These measures aim to influence students' choices and thus redirect student flows. This research focuses on eight such measures: - Numerus Fixus - Reduction in tuition fees - Reduction or abolition of lesson fees - Second study in healthcare and education at statutory tuition fees - Increase in BBL salary - Job guarantees - Diploma bonus - Warm handover This research utilised literature analysis, interviews and focus groups, an analysis of CBS microdata, and a vignette study (also known as discrete choice or conjoint analysis). We conclude that choosing a course of study is a layered process that takes years and heavily depends on the student's context. The main driver for study choice is the intention of the applicant to exhibit certain behaviours, based on their perception of both the course and the future profession. The eight evaluated measures have not shown any proven effect in increasing enrolment in courses for sectors facing staff shortages. Therefore, we cannot confirm the effectiveness of these measures. The measures of diploma bonus, job guarantee, and warm handover do not lead to increased enrolment in courses preparing for a sustainable job market outlook, but may help reduce dropouts within these courses. Thus, indirectly, these measures can contribute to reducing staff shortages in the job market. Additionally, these measures are easily implementable and have relatively low implementation costs. Financial incentives aimed at reducing educational costs are relatively expensive and have not shown any proven effect on enrolment, as indicated by an analysis of CBS data and the vignette study. A numerus fixus is highly effective in reducing enrolment in courses not preparing for sectors facing shortages, but there is no experimental evidence that this results in higher enrolment in courses preparing for sectors facing shortages.