The digital footprint: Emissions of the digital sector in the Netherlands in a (future) perspective

In this study, we analyse the CO₂ emissions of the digital sector in scope 1 and scope 2, the underlying mechanisms and trends, and scenarios for the future. To answer the research questions, we modelled the energy consumption (electricity) of various components of the digital sector from the bottom up. This estimation is translated into emissions based on an energy mix model. The model then calculated a number of future scenarios, taking into account general trends, developments in the energy mix, efficiency growth of digital technology, and increasing demand for digital services. 1. What is the contribution of the digital sector to emissions? Scope 2 emissions of the digital sector are entirely related to the electricity consumption of digital equipment. This study examined the energy use of end-user devices (such as smartphones, tablets, desktops, and TVs), fixed and mobile networks, and data centres. The total estimated emissions for 2023 amounted to a maximum of 3.33 Mton CO₂ (based on system-level emission factors) and a minimum of 1.04 Mton CO₂ (when low emission factors for purchased green electricity are considered). Approximately 50% of this can be attributed to end-user devices and TVs, 12% to networks, and 38% to data centres. In the future, emissions will depend on several factors. Firstly, there are general trends (such as population growth). Additionally, the extent to which the demand for digital services continues to grow and how this growth compares to the ongoing efficiency improvements of digital technologies are crucial. Four scenarios have been considered for the latter: Below is a figure showing the lower and upper bounds for the expected CO₂ emissions in scope 2 based on all the different scenarios. Since the scope 2 emissions of the digital sector stem from electricity consumption, the emission factor of electricity strongly influences the magnitude of emissions. If the goal to make electricity production carbon-neutral by 2050 is achieved, the emissions of the digital sector will also be reduced to zero (resulting in very similar outcomes for the different scenarios). Delays in achieving the goals (especially in combination with one of the less favourable scenarios) could lead to significantly higher emissions. Dialogic presented the results of this study on 29 September at ABN AMRO to the National Coalition for Sustainable Digitalisation. The report has been published on the Rijksoverheid.nl website and forms part of the foundation of the NCDD position paper. In a parallel study, it was investigated to what extent the digital sector can contribute to emission reduction.