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Dialogic and TNO investigated together how the internet will develop in the next ten years. It emerges that the internet will grow by 30 to 40 percent in the coming years. As a result, an average household will have access to between 75 and 400 Mbps in 2020. For comparison: currently, a household can download at speeds of 5 to 10 Mbps. However, to achieve these speeds, there also needs to be an infrastructure capable of delivering them. By 2020, especially fiber optic and cable networks will be suitable for this.
More and more digital services are becoming available, and the adoption, diversity, and dependence on these different services are increasing. But equally important for bandwidth consumption is the fact that services are becoming more bandwidth-intensive. This is mainly due to the integration of video images in numerous services, even across sectors.
Based on various reputable sources, we estimate that the average bandwidth demand for fixed connections in the Netherlands will grow exponentially by about 30% to 40% per year between now and 2020.
For several reasons, the researchers have opted for a relatively conservative estimate. The main reason for this is that in the Netherlands, there will hardly be any more exogenous growth on the fixed network; only endogenous growth. The growth will almost entirely have to come from ‘Dutch people who will use the internet more’ and not from ‘more Dutch people using the internet’. However, it can be expected that simultaneous usage within households will further increase. Calculations show a wide range for the average download speed in 2020, ranging from 75 Mbit/s to 400 Mbit/s. The unpredictability of the success of future services and devices that will use a lot of bandwidth—such as Net TV, HD streaming, cloud computing, and HD teleconferencing—introduces a high degree of uncertainty into predictions for 2020. The same applies to the accelerated provision of large bandwidths due to significant investments in NGN infrastructure. We anticipate that the current, fairly strong bandwidth asymmetry on the demand side will indeed decrease, but that the asymmetry will remain a lasting feature, with an indicative lower limit of around 1:5. In principle, asymmetric access technologies should not pose a limitation to effectively facilitating symmetric services such as HD video conferencing, as long as the upload speed is sufficiently high and guaranteed.
More information can be found in the report Vraag en aanbod Next-Generation Infrastructures 2010 – 2020.