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Dialogic and TNO have jointly investigated how the internet will develop in the next ten years. It emerges that the internet will grow by 30 to 40 percent in the coming years. This means that by 2020, an average household will have access to speeds ranging between 75 to 400 Mbps. For comparison: currently, a household can download at speeds of 5 to 10 Mbps. However, to achieve these speeds, an infrastructure capable of delivering them is also necessary. By 2020, especially fiber optic and cable networks will be suitable for this purpose.
More and more digital services are becoming available, and the adoption, diversity, and dependency on these services are increasing. Equally important for bandwidth consumption is the fact that services are becoming more bandwidth-intensive. This is mainly due to the integration of video images in various services, also across sectors.
Based on various reputable sources, we estimate that the average bandwidth demand for fixed connections in the Netherlands will grow exponentially between now and 2020, at about 30% to 40% per year.
For several reasons, the researchers have opted for a relatively conservative estimate. The main reason for this is that in the Netherlands, there will hardly be any more exogenous growth on the fixed network, only endogenous growth. The growth will almost entirely have to come from 'Dutch people who will use the internet more' and not from 'more Dutch people who will start using the internet'. However, it can be expected that simultaneous use within households will further increase. Calculations show a broad range for the average download speed in 2020, ranging from 75 Mbit/s to 400 Mbit/s. The unpredictability of the success of future services and devices that will use a lot of bandwidth, such as Net TV, HD streaming, cloud computing, and HD teleconferencing, adds a high level of uncertainty to predictions for 2020. The same applies to the accelerated provision of high bandwidths as a result of significant investments in NGN infrastructure. We expect that the current, fairly strong bandwidth asymmetry on the demand side will indeed diminish, but that the asymmetry will remain a lasting feature, with an indicative lower limit of around 1:5. In principle, asymmetric access technologies do not need to be a constraint in facilitating symmetric services such as HD video conferencing, as long as the upload speed is sufficiently high and guaranteed.
More information can be found in the report Supply and Demand Next-Generation Infrastructures 2010 - 2020.